2014-2024 Long-Term Procurement Planning
Phase 1: System Reliability Needs  

Background 


As part of its 2014 Long-Term Procurement Planning (LTPP) Rulemaking,the CPUC forecasts system-wide resource needs on a ten-year forward planning horizon. The LTPP system need phase relies upon a computer modeling exercise to forecast resource supply and projected demand in ten years and determine what, if any, new resources may be needed to meet system-wide resource and flexibility needs in 2024. The inputs to the modeling exercise are based on a set of Standard Planning Assumptions and Scenarios initially proposed by the CPUC in a series of questions posed to parties on modeling input assumptions and the CAISO’s Transmission Planning Process. On February 27, 2014, the CPUC issued a Ruling adopting the final 2014 LTPP Standard Planning Assumptions and Scenarios.

On May 6, 2014 the CPUC issued a Scoping Memo and Ruling for Phase 1 on System Reliability Needs, dividing the phase into two sub-phases: 

Phase 1a: Studies for System and Flexible Resource Needs

In 2014 the CAISO, Edison, and ORA will conduct energy modeling simulation exercises using the CPUC's Standard Planning Assumptions and Scenarios from its February 27, 2014 Ruling to determine overall system and flexibility resource needs -- i.e., new resources needed for the state’s entire electric demand -- but not how those needs would be filled.

Phase 1b: Residual System Need  

In 2015 the CPUC will utilize the Phase 1a modeling results to potentially authorize specific resources (such as generation facilities, demand-side programs) to fill any residual system need after accounting for authorized transmission and transmission-related infrastructure from the CAISO’s Transmission Planning Process which may offset some need determined in Phase 1a.
 

ORA Position

Phase 1a:

On August 13, 2014 ORA filed testimony, along with the CAISO and Edison, on the results of its Phase 1a modeling for system reliability need in 2024.  ORA modeled three scenarios for the year 2024:

  • The Trajectory Scenario: Used the CPUC’s finalized Standard Planning Assumptions. ORA conducted this run in order to validate the results of the CAISO’s Trajectory Scenario run.
  • ORA Scenario 1: Iincluded an increased amount of small, behind-the-meter customer-side photovoltaics (PV).
  • ORA Scenario 2: Included a minimum amount of procurement authorized in the Track 4 2012 LTPP decision. 

ORA’s modeling results showed very limited resource or flexibility shortfall for the year 2024, limited to two days in mid-July for only a few hours. From these results, ORA recommended that the CPUC should not authorize any additional system reliability or flexible resource procurement in the 2014 LTPP proceeding.   

See ORA's August 13, 2014 Testimony on 2014 Long-Term Procurement Planning (LTPP): Results of Phase 1a Modeling Scenarios.

See ORA's October 22, 2014 Reply Testimony recommending the CPUC should consider the following sensitivities to the modeled scenarios:

  • Reasonable renewable curtailment assumptions. 
  • Allowing for energy exports from the CAISO area to the rest of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) during times of over-generation.
  • Accounting for procurement authorization from the CPUC's decisions on Tracks 1 and 4 of the 2012 LTPP proceeding. 
  • Transmission results from the CAISO’s 2013 – 2014 Transmission Planning Process. 

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Phase 1b:

In Phase 1b ORA recommends incorporating the following to help minimize new resource need:

  • Procurement authorization from the CPUC's decisions on Tracks 1 and 4 of the 2012 LTPP proceeding.
  • Transmission results from the CAISO’s 2013 – 2014 Transmission Planning Process. 

 

Proceeding Status 

See the Proceeding docket.  

 

Resources

ORA Long-Term Procurement Planning Portal and 2014 LTPP Phase 2.

CPUC 2014 LTPP Webpage.